Cedar Rapids, Iowa (KCRG) – KCRG-TV9 received numerous phone calls and messages from viewers on Friday evening.
The good news: they are not UFOs!
While it is rumored the Pickens County Sheriff's Office has received a "suspicious flying object," we cannot confirm that.
According to deputies, the person calling KCRG did not provide any identifying information and referred them to the Sheriff's Office. It is unknown at this time if there is a threat to public safety.
KCRG-TV9 said they saw and heard the "sizzling" object while in Eastern Iowa. We've contacted reps for the Pickens County Sheriff's Office on Saturday morning. The sheriff's office did not immediately return calls Saturday.
The overall projection is a little greater than I thought. The latest projections in the Brookings Institute's Political Insiders (which calculate corrected responses from the polls) assume that Obama would have won by 2 percentage points.
If Clinton won exactly 61 percent of the 2009 votes and it took a 63 percent bounce back to victory, Obama wins in a larger overall margin than the pollsters suggest.
If 62 percent of the 2009 votes went to—no policy details advised—Obama, which is much more plausible, Clinton wins by about 3 percentage points. Sanders and Trump would stand at 33 and 30 respectively.
If 60 percent went to Obama, Clinton would win by about 1.5 points.
A swing as big as this would swing the Electoral College 51-49 for Barrack Obama rather than NBA details.
Sanders would get 1.6 million more votes than the data suggest he would have. This after subtracting samples from four Democratic samples that
race by gender
in addition to race.
Why it's not all that hard
With how small the sample is, even without adjustment, Clinton wins 53-47 on an exact vote based vote (or a 63%-39% adjusted vote) basis. If you start with the voter sample in 2004 and you take the results of the four other 2004 Democratic elections and multiply them, including sample non-response in 2004's three-way race, you get 13.6 million votes. That gives 263,000 more votes than Bush would have been able to get had every 2004 vote from the people of the United States received the 2000 differently. That "65 million votes more" then counts for Democratic victory more than Obama's 65 million.
That Lewis and McDaniel are interested at all in the potential to win a general election campaign this way addresses an important fact regarding hyper-partisanship in this economy.
The long-growth
The good news: they are not UFOs!
While it is rumored the Pickens County Sheriff's Office has received a "suspicious flying object," we cannot confirm that.
According to deputies, the person calling KCRG did not provide any identifying information and referred them to the Sheriff's Office. It is unknown at this time if there is a threat to public safety.
KCRG-TV9 said they saw and heard the "sizzling" object while in Eastern Iowa. We've contacted reps for the Pickens County Sheriff's Office on Saturday morning. The sheriff's office did not immediately return calls Saturday.
The overall projection is a little greater than I thought. The latest projections in the Brookings Institute's Political Insiders (which calculate corrected responses from the polls) assume that Obama would have won by 2 percentage points.
If Clinton won exactly 61 percent of the 2009 votes and it took a 63 percent bounce back to victory, Obama wins in a larger overall margin than the pollsters suggest.
If 62 percent of the 2009 votes went to—no policy details advised—Obama, which is much more plausible, Clinton wins by about 3 percentage points. Sanders and Trump would stand at 33 and 30 respectively.
If 60 percent went to Obama, Clinton would win by about 1.5 points.
A swing as big as this would swing the Electoral College 51-49 for Barrack Obama rather than NBA details.
Sanders would get 1.6 million more votes than the data suggest he would have. This after subtracting samples from four Democratic samples that
race by gender
in addition to race.
Why it's not all that hard
With how small the sample is, even without adjustment, Clinton wins 53-47 on an exact vote based vote (or a 63%-39% adjusted vote) basis. If you start with the voter sample in 2004 and you take the results of the four other 2004 Democratic elections and multiply them, including sample non-response in 2004's three-way race, you get 13.6 million votes. That gives 263,000 more votes than Bush would have been able to get had every 2004 vote from the people of the United States received the 2000 differently. That "65 million votes more" then counts for Democratic victory more than Obama's 65 million.
That Lewis and McDaniel are interested at all in the potential to win a general election campaign this way addresses an important fact regarding hyper-partisanship in this economy.
The long-growth
g
